By Leo Au-Yeung (Copy Editor #2)
Florida’s 13th Congressional District was reassigned to Pinellas County in 2012, encompassing the land from Dunedin to northwestern parts of St. Petersburg. Within this district, the voter demographics have typically been even: around 50% of the voters are Republican while the other 50% are Democratic. Historically, there has only been one Democratic representative, William Lehman, who represented the district from 1973 to 1983. In contrast, there have been seven Republican representatives that have represented the district since 1983. However, the elections have always been close to an even split from electoral data dating back to the 2002 house of representative election. The only exceptions to this pattern were in 2008 and 2010, when Republican Vern Buchanan received a distinctly higher number of votes in both elections compared to other candidates who were running ("Florida's 13th Congressional District - Ballotpedia", 2016).
The current U.S. Representative of Florida's 13th Congressional District is David Jolly, the Republican incumbent, has also worked with previous representative Bill Young from 1995 to 2006. After Bill Young’s death during the 114th Congress while still in office, the 13th Congressional District held a special election on March 11, 2014 to elect a replacement representative (“Full Biography”, 2016). This election was between Republican David Jolly, Democrat Alex Sink, and Libertarian Lucas Overby. David Jolly won with 88,294 votes (48.5%) while Alex Sink had 84,877 votes (46.6%) and Lucas Overby had 8,799 votes (4.8%). Although this election did not occur on the official day that the congressional election was supposed to happen, it paved the way for David Jolly to get re-elected for a full term nonetheless ("Florida's 13th Congressional District - Ballotpedia", 2016).
2016 U.S. House Representative Election Candidates
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| Charlie Crist (D) [left] & David Jolly (R) [right] |
The two major candidates running in this current election are Republican David Jolly and Democrat Charlie Crist ("Florida's 13th Congressional District election, 2016 - Ballotpedia", 2016). On July 20, 2015, David Jolly initially announced that he would be giving up his seat in the House to run for the United States Senate seat previously held by Marco Rubio. However, on June 17, 2016, he quit the Senate race to run for re-election in the House, maintaining enough popularity to run as the leading candidate for the Republican party. David Jolly has established his stance on various major issues through announcements, public speeches, and legislative change. Jolly has claimed stances on a wide variety of topics, including supporting anti-abortion, same-sex marriage, securing U.S. borders, and increasing surveillance of suspected domestic terrorists. ("Full Biography", 2016).
Charlie Crist initially began his career as a Republican from 1974 to 2010, switching to an Independent in 2010-2012, before becoming a Democrat in 2012 after endorsing President Barack Obama for re-election. Crist has been in various office positions including Educational Commissioner of Florida, Attorney General of Florida, and Governor of Florida. Crist has been unclear with his stance on abortion, foreign policy, and same-sex marriage by supporting them at times, but not officially having a stance at other times. However, after becoming a Democrat in 2012, he has since supported same-sex marriage and opposed having the embargo on Cuba, which he had previously supported ("About Charlie Crist - Charlie Crist for Congress", 2016).
Electoral Projections & Demographics
The election for the House of the Representatives in District 13 has been a close race. The current projection by Election Projection is that Charlie Crist will be victorious based on various polls by StPetePolls and the University of North Florida that have shown a lean towards the Democratic representative.
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| (“Who is winning the Florida 13th District Election?”, 2016) |
However, pollsters Jim McLaughlin and Rob Schmidt of Florida Politics have claimed that David Jolly may very well win the race, stating, “Jolly is quite popular with voters and he has significantly higher favorable ratings than Charlie Crist. Even though this seat has become somewhat more Democratic, David Jolly appears to be the best candidate to keep this seat in Republican hand.” (“Two new polls show different results in David Jolly vs. Charlie Crist congressional race - Florida Politics”, 2016)
Both arguments have polling data and logical reasoning behind them - Jolly is an incumbent who has worked to address several issues for his district, thus becoming quite popular, and Crist has done similar work by being in various government positions in Florida, and thus also being a well-known candidate. However, if we look at historical patterns, the Republican candidate always seems to come out on top in the elections, especially if the votes are nearly in a fifty-fifty split. If we consider demographics, the majority of voters in District 13 consist of white citizens (87.1%) with a median household income of $44,591.
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| ("13th Congressional District, Florida Demographics - Income, Housing, Race, Business", 2016) |
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| ("13th Congressional District, Florida Demographics - Income, Housing, Race, Business", 2016) |
Although most white citizens, especially in the South, may vote conservatively and pick the Republican candidate, District 13 has shown that there is still a good portion of white voters who may very well vote for the Democratic candidate. Having an equal proportion of Republican and Democratic voters may very well cause the representative of the house’s election to come down to the amount of voters who actually go to the polls on Election Day and vote for their candidate, especially with the current presidential election happening as well.
In the end, the House of Representatives election in District 13 may very well be in the hands of incumbent David Jolly for another two years. The reasoning behind this is that although Charlie Crist may have a good platform and support for various issues, the people within the district seem to always know the Republican candidate more, especially if it's an incumbent. Historically speaking, even when the race is close to a fifty-fifty split, the Republican candidate always ends up winning in the end. Whether this trend ends up being due to the fact that more Republican voters show up to the polls on Election Day or whether the Republican candidate conveys his/her message better, this trend has occurred for over a decade. If Charlie Crist does end up winning, however, the election could turn out to be a turning point in the district's history, and possibly affecting the overall vote of Florida as well.
In the end, the House of Representatives election in District 13 may very well be in the hands of incumbent David Jolly for another two years. The reasoning behind this is that although Charlie Crist may have a good platform and support for various issues, the people within the district seem to always know the Republican candidate more, especially if it's an incumbent. Historically speaking, even when the race is close to a fifty-fifty split, the Republican candidate always ends up winning in the end. Whether this trend ends up being due to the fact that more Republican voters show up to the polls on Election Day or whether the Republican candidate conveys his/her message better, this trend has occurred for over a decade. If Charlie Crist does end up winning, however, the election could turn out to be a turning point in the district's history, and possibly affecting the overall vote of Florida as well.
References
13th Congressional District, Florida Demographics - Income, Housing, Race, Business. (2016). Biggestuscities.com. Retrieved 5 November 2016, from https://www.biggestuscities.com/demographics/fl/13th-congressional-district
About Charlie Crist - Charlie Crist for Congress. (2016). Charlie Crist for Congress. Retrieved 5 November 2016, from http://www.charliecrist.com/about/
Florida's 13th Congressional District - Ballotpedia. (2016). Ballotpedia.org. Retrieved 5 November 2016, from https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District
Florida's 13th Congressional District election, 2016 - Ballotpedia. (2016). Ballotpedia.org. Retrieved 5 November 2016, from https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2016
Full Biography. (2016). Honorable David Jolly. Retrieved 5 November 2016, from https://jolly.house.gov/about/full-biography/
Two new polls show different results in David Jolly vs. Charlie Crist congressional race - Florida Politics. (2016) Florida Politics. Retrieved 5 November 2016, from http://floridapolitics.com/archives/213965-two-new-polls-show-different-results-david-jolly-charlie-crist-cd-13-race
Who is winning the Florida 13th District Election? (2016) Election Projection. Retrieved 5 November 2016, from http://www.electionprojection.com/florida-13th-district-election.php
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