Marco vs. Murphy, Who will Prevail?

by Khandker Shadman Habib (Point Person, Proofreader #3)

          With the Florida state senate elections only a few days away, the momentum of the two candidates, Marco Rubio (Republican) and Patrick Murphy (Democrat), has only gotten stronger. Both candidates have debated over key issues on the 17th and the 26th of October. Marco Rubio is up for re-election after having gained 82% of the vote in the primary, an interesting turn of events after his original attempt to become the presidential nominee of his party, which was eventually handed to Donald Trump. Patrick Murphy, a member of the House of Representatives, came out just over Alan Grayson in the primaries with 59% of the vote (Ballotpedia, 2016). The two candidates seem to have been on the offensive lately in their senate debates. Marco Rubio emphasized that he is the only candidate to be ready to take on the new president and argue, debate and criticize him/her on any issue. However, Murphy countered with the fact that Rubio has had a very low voting record recently due to his time commitment during the presidential primary earlier this year (C-span, 2016). With two powerful figures ready to represent the people of the swing state of Florida, the decision as to who will win is not an easy answer.

Patrick Murphy (D) [left] & Marco Rubio (R) [right] 

As for voter demographics, much is determined by the fact that Florida is a closed state primary, allowing only registered party members to vote in the senate election. According to the Florida Department of State: Division of Elections, the majority of the registered voters, approximately 13 million, are split between the Republicans, Democrats and Independents. About 4.5 million are Republicans, 4.8 million are Democrats and 3.1 million are Independents, with the remaining voters being members of minor parties, such as the Green and Libertarian parties. By race, almost ⅔ of all registered voters are White, with Hispanics and blacks each about ⅛ of the voters (Florida state division of elections, 2016). Taking a cross-section of the voters by party and voters by race, it's clear that white Republicans have a leading majority of the votes, almost double that of White democrats. This means that Marco Rubio will have a higher chance of securing more white members' votes than Murphy will. On the other hand, Murphy is advantaged by the fact that there are also black and Hispanic democratic voters in Florida, who tend to vote Democrat.

With regard to political message, Marco Rubio is very pro-life, while Patrick Murphy is very pro-choice, which aligns quite well with each candidate's party's view. In the October 17 debate, Rubio makes every effort to show that his past legislation has been very responsive to the demands of Floridian society. He brings up the Floridian gay nightclub massacre to emphasize that he does intend on supporting the policies on gun control against radical Islamic terrorists (C-span, 2016). He introduced his recent legislation that prevents suspected terrorists from purchasing firearms (Marco Rubio, 2016). Although Murphy countered saying it hasn't done much, Rubio had the upper hand in that Murphy hadn't passed any legislation over the past few years in the House (C-span, 2016). The two candidates' views divide the electorate in that there are quite a few blacks and Hispanics who will likely be voting this election. Their pro-choice and progressive stance on issues may in fact sway the votes to Murphy's favor, although, as of now, it's predicted that there will be a higher percentage of Rubio votes (Nate Silver, 2016).

As Rubio is an incumbent, most of the campaigning and momentum is in his favor, as incumbents generally have an easier time spreading ideas, finding connections and dominating in the media. Rubio's attempt to become the nominee, however, poses another dilemma Floridians must consider: What is his real motive? Is all this simply in preparation for his presidential bid in the 2020 presidential primaries? Luckily, media attention over Rubio’s presidential attempts has died down recently, and voters are more interested in what he had to offer as an incumbent. 

          On that note, Rubio and Murphy are using multiple platforms to get their messages across. Rubio has posted several articles on his recent legislation and policies on his website: http://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/, while Murphy has focused on using short thirty-second marketing ads to paint a negative portrait of Rubio. Both candidates attempted to get their messages across in the debates, yet ended up arguing with each other. Ever since Rubio entered the Senate reelection race in April 2016, he has exponentially increased his spending to almost double that of Murphy's, averaging around $6 million in mid-October (Nate Silver, 2016). Rubio is going all out to secure his position as Senator for the next six years.

  

Marco Rubio Never in Office Political Cartoon (Daniel Kurtzman, 2016)

According to the 538 blog by Nate Silver, as of November 2nd, Marco Rubio (R) has a strikingly high chances of being reelected, at 80.6%, while his opponent Murphy is at 19.6%. It seemed that earlier this year in July, the two candidates had roughly even chances. However, as time has passed, it's quite clear that Rubio's candidacy has gotten more traction, advertisement and support than that of Murphy's, which isn't all too surprising due to that fact that Rubio is an incumbent. At the same time, the projected vote share between the two is quite close, with a standard error of about five percent, meaning it still seems to be a close election. The graph below highlights these points:

Rubio and Murphy Projected Votes and Chances at Senate Election (Nate Silver, 2016)

One specific poll, conducted upon mainly registered Florida voters by a news agency called News13, reveals interesting probabilities about potential voter distribution next Tuesday. 1,251 likely November voters participated in the poll, with 45% favoring Rubio and 41% favoring Murphy, with a 2.3% margin of error. Although these results don't indicate a clear winner, when viewed through the lens of race, income, gender, age and party affiliation, there are some strong trends (News 13, 2016).

As for age, generally older voters are likely to go for Rubio while younger voters are likely to go for Murphy. Gender is quite balanced (50-50) and won't have too much of an effect on the election. In the chart below, the highest composition of likely voters is middle aged men and women, who will tend to go for Rubio.

          Rubio again gains the upper hand due to the fact that the composition of likely voters will be approximately 80% white (assuming the poll extends to the real election). He generally gains a high percentage of white people's votes, especially from his strong Republican voter base. As for Murphy, blacks and Hispanics are much more likely to vote for him, but it is not likely that their votes will overcome the weight for the votes for Rubio at this point in the election (Anthony Leone, 2016).

These trends are apparent in many other polls as well. The data below reflects poll statistics among multiple other polling agencies, including SurveyUSA, CNN and SurveyMonkey. Most, if not all, predict Marco Rubio to become the winner, as shown by the 'Adjusted Leader'. The weight was used by Nate Silver's 538 blog to estimate the chances of Rubio winning, which has gotten increasingly higher in the last few days (87.6%).

  Florida Senate Poll Predictions (Nate Silver, 2016)

Ultimately, the fate of the election is strongly favoring another incumbency effect to occur, with Rubio to take six more years as a Republican senator. The Senate is predicted to be majority democratic as of November 5th, so this will definitely impact the playing field (Nate Silver, 2016). Rubio's recent performance at debates, ability to coherently demonstrate his competency and will to the people and his incumbency status all make him a much more viable candidate for reelection in the 2016 Senate. His momentum is in full swing and only time will tell now.

References

Bookclosing Reports - Regular - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State. (2016). Dos.myflorida.com. Retrieved 6 November 2016, from http://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/bookclosing/bookclosing-reports-regular/

C-Span,. (2016). October 17, 2016- Florida Senate Debate. Retrieved from https://www.c-span.org/video/?415827-1/florida-senate-debate

Hiaasen, C. (2016). Miami Herald: Op-Ed: Marco Rubio Keeps His Eyes on the Prize in 2020 - Patrick Murphy for U.S. Senate. Patrick Murphy for U.S. Senate. Retrieved 5 November 2016, from https://www.murphyforflorida.com/frontpage/2016/miami-herald-op-ed-marco-rubio-keeps-eyes-prize-2020/

Kurtzman, D. (2016). Marco Rubio Work Ethic. Retrieved from http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/politicalcartoons/ig/Political-Cartoons-of-the-Week/Marco-Rubio-Work-Ethic.htm#step-heading

Leone, A. & Gargotta, J. (2016). Exclusive Florida Decides Poll: Rubio barely leads Murphy by 4 points. Mynews13.com. Retrieved 5 November 2016, from http://www.mynews13.com/content/news/cfnews13/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2016/10/25/senate_poll_results.html#gender

Population estimates, July 1, 2015,  (V2015). (2016). Census.gov. Retrieved 5 November 2016, from http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/12

Rubio, M. (2016). U.S. Senator for Florida, Marco Rubio. Rubio.senate.gov. Retrieved 5 November 2016, from http://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/?

Silver, N. (2016). Who will win Florida?. Projects.fivethirtyeight.com. Retrieved 5 November 2016, from http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/florida/

United States Senate election in Florida, 2016 - Ballotpedia. (2016). Ballotpedia.org. Retrieved 5 November 2016, from https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2016